The Persian Spring (Will It Bloom or Wilt?)
A top-level analysis of strategic possibilities regarding the fallout of Epic Fury. High risk, high reward. This analysis assumes Iran's dictatorship is fully defeated.
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There are several things to highlight when it comes to the situation in Iran and Israel right now. These talking points are designed to highlight some of the likely global effects worth being aware of, to track how they unfold in real time, and to anticipate the future. It is not intended to be exhaustive, as that could fill a book. This should also spark a healthy debate, because that means people are thinking about these possibilities and others and accounting for them in what I always call “The Global Game of Thrones.”
CHINA: In less than 60 days, the two primary oil suppliers to China have been taken out. Iran and Venezuela are critical to China’s energy needs.
RUSSIA: Iran supplied Russia with cheap, expendable drones and other weaponry, which allowed Russia to maintain a large part of its operations in Ukraine. Iran was also a key nation of influence in the regions that Russia maintained ties with to ensure their Southern borders were not overrun by Islamists, while content to let the Islamists in Iran focus on the United States.
CHINA and RUSSIA: With China losing its two main suppliers of oil, it will have to explore alternative sources. The allied relationship between China and Russia is still relatively new, given the many decades during which they were adversaries. China might look to Eastern Siberia as a source of energy. Still, the question is whether it will seek a trading partner in Russia or turn Russia back into an adversary and consider a military move into Siberia?
NORTH KOREA: China sustains North Korea. If China’s ailing economy suffers devastating consequences, North Korea could either become more militaristic, seeking appeasement from nations around the world, or collapse under its own weight.
UNITED STATES, CHINA, RUSSIA: Whether by plan or by accident, severing the relationship between China and Russia could occur or at least accelerate because of Operation Epic Fury. If this happens, China would lose a potential energy trading partner, and a turn toward Europe by Russia could allow for the rebuilding of positive relations and more open trade when the Ukraine war ends.
SAUDI ARABIA: The Saudis and Iranians have maintained an adversarial relationship for a long time. This is not only geopolitical, but also religious. Saudi Arabia is Sunni Muslim, and Iran is Shia. Saudi Arabia will support America’s operations in Iran because it sees an opportunity to grow to a level of hegemony in the Middle East and Central Asia.
IRAN NOW: Iran is further isolating itself from Gulf Cooperation Council nations as it attacks nations in the region. Those not currently signatories to the Abraham Accords could soon desire to sign on.
IRAN THEN: Iran could return to being a regional ally of the U.S. in time. The days and months ahead will be challenging and ugly if internal conflicts and power struggles occur and turn violent. If Iran can peacefully transition to a government structure that enables it to prosper and remain generally free, this will positively affect global security. Even if something short of a democratic government takes over, if they do cease to be regionally belligerent, this is still a net gain. In an ideal situation, I can see Iran changing its name back to Persia.
HAMAS, HEZBOLLAH, HOUTHIS: By losing Iranian support, they would become ineffective.
TURKEY, IRAQ, THE KURDS: As the Kurdish population is in Iraq, Iran, and Turkey, they could see an opportunity in Iran to establish a separate state for their own people. This would concern Turkey and Iraq if the Kurds sought a greater Kurdistan encompassing the areas where they already live, with Erbil, Iraq, as its capital.
AFGHANISTAN: Iranian diplomatic vehicles are already arriving in Herat, Afghanistan, as they escape Iran. Iran and Afghanistan have been at odds over water access, and Iran’s distraction could provide the Taliban an opportunity to seize more control over precious water supplies and cause greater future potential conflict with a new Iranian government. How aggressively the Taliban could move depends on whether the Pakistan-Afghanistan border conflict grows or calms down.
TURKEMENISTAN AND PIPELINES: Personnel from the Trans Adriatic Pipeline have shut down the project and returned home. This is one indicator of potential energy conflicts across the region. There are other pipelines and conflicts possible, but there are too many to put here. Such as the BTK.
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Good Afternoon, Sir. Good article and easy read. Two notes:
•As I read, I couldn't help but think of the Biblical accounts (e.g., Abraham, Sarah, Ishmael, Issac, then Jacob and Esau for starters!) that account for so much of the complex current-day mess 🤦🏼♂️ and,
•Nice MDMP reference (if I have decent INTEL I do my fact gathering well, those necessary Assumptions are north of 80% true!). 🤓😎😉
I am always impressed with the reporting and analysis provided by Darin Gaub. He provides so much insight into global politics that we will never hear from any US news agency. We don’t have reporters anymore just mouth pieces for the Demonic Party.